Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.018711 0.021225 0.023959 0.027154 0.030787 0.034792 0.039546
2025-05-04 0.014998 0.018503 0.022651 0.027928 0.034473 0.042338 0.052526
2025-05-11 0.012558 0.016398 0.021208 0.027692 0.036223 0.047097 0.062059
2025-05-18 0.010944 0.014966 0.020249 0.027712 0.038022 0.051815 0.071763
2025-05-25 0.009569 0.013618 0.019154 0.027301 0.039039 0.055419 0.080154
2025-06-01 0.008722 0.012866 0.018738 0.027705 0.041123 0.060573 0.091121
2025-06-08 0.007856 0.011969 0.017993 0.027502 0.042232 0.064335 0.100314
2025-06-15 0.007378 0.011585 0.017939 0.028288 0.044846 0.070515 0.113730
2025-06-22 0.006561 0.010590 0.016847 0.027333 0.044614 0.072213 0.120136
2025-06-29 0.005984 0.009914 0.016180 0.026970 0.045258 0.075303 0.129031
2025-07-06 0.005369 0.009115 0.015235 0.026046 0.044856 0.076593 0.134939
2025-07-13 0.005171 0.008992 0.015390 0.026977 0.047672 0.083520 0.151261
2025-07-20 0.004930 0.008781 0.015389 0.027659 0.050154 0.090165 0.167888
2025-07-27 0.004728 0.008620 0.015460 0.028476 0.052959 0.097647 0.186842
2025-08-03 0.004386 0.008174 0.014980 0.028234 0.053769 0.101529 0.199320
2025-08-10 0.004115 0.007833 0.014660 0.028255 0.055063 0.106405 0.214176
2025-08-17 0.003812 0.007405 0.014138 0.027836 0.055455 0.109561 0.225867
2025-08-24 0.003640 0.007213 0.014048 0.028247 0.057519 0.116165 0.245252
2025-08-31 0.003410 0.006887 0.013667 0.028040 0.058301 0.120243 0.259702
2025-09-07 0.003309 0.006812 0.013777 0.028843 0.061239 0.128999 0.285071
2025-09-14 0.003032 0.006350 0.013068 0.027868 0.060319 0.129549 0.292376
2025-09-21 0.002838 0.006048 0.012660 0.027498 0.060664 0.132823 0.306107
2025-09-28 0.002606 0.005646 0.012014 0.026555 0.059657 0.133038 0.312792